Spreading the news
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Media technologies still in their infancy are gaining fast on traditional newspapers. The future for print looks bleak -- unless the industry can transform itself.

By Andrew Ratner
sun reporter

November 6, 2005
Newton N. Minow says he has seen every side of the media elephant.

He's been a board director of Tribune Co., which owns this newspaper. He chaired the Rand Corp. as it helped develop the Internet - and says, "we didn't understand what it was all about at the time."

He was a director of CBS-TV and chaired the Public Broadcasting System. Most famously, he was head of the Federal Communications Commission when he told a gathering of broadcasters in 1961 that television was a "vast wasteland."

The producer of Gilligan's
Island was so incensed, he named the shipwrecked boat in his TV comedy after Minow. But Minow's assessment, at a time when Americans were transfixed by the new, glowing cube in their living rooms, was prescient. So when he frets about the future of newspapers as we know them, it's worth taking notice.

"Where it all ends up nobody knows, but print, in my opinion, is not going to recover. I think we know that," Minow said recently, speaking from his law office in
Washington. "When the Senate was holding hearings about Judge Roberts, it seems to me the most important questions they should have been asking were about the role of technology in the next 25 years."

Minow's judgment might seem odd when profits are considered. As the Columbia Journalism Review noted in an editorial agonizing over the future of newspapers last week, the weighted average of profit margins for the newspaper divisions of major media companies as measured by Morton Research Inc. climbed to nearly 20 percent last year - more than double the average profit margin of the Fortune 500.

But that's only one piece of the story. Newspaper readership has been in decline for years, and the pace of decline is accelerating, according to the Audit Bureau of Circulation. Advertising revenues are stagnant, and newspaper profits and stock prices are being propped up by cost cutting and stock buybacks.

Angst about the future of newspapers has swirled for a long time, but concerns gained strength this fall after a succession of job cuts at several large, respected publications, including The New York Times, The Boston Globe, The Philadelphia Inquirer and U.S. News & World Report.

Last week, three large institutional investors that, together, hold more than 36 percent of the stock of Knight-Ridder, one of the nation's largest newspaper chains, expressed dissatisfaction with the price of that company's stock. They suggested that a sale might be necessary for Knight Ridder shareholders to realize a fair return on their investments.

The three - Private Capital Management, Southeastern Asset Management and Harris Associates LP - sent letters to the Knight Ridder board of directors urging talks.

The "board takes its fiduciary duties seriously and will respond in due course," said Knight Ridder spokesman Polk Laffoon.

Industry analysts said the Knight Ridder investors are triggering a showdown that could test the value of local media, where newspapers still dominate.

While investors fret, the traditional media's self-image is increasingly shaped through blogs and Web sites - pieces of the new media that they worry about. Dire signs appear so doubtless, gallows humor has set in: The Society for News Design included 3-D glasses in its recent journal about ideas for survival.

Radio and television, print's old challengers, are facing their own struggles and are trying to reinvent themselves in satellite and high-definition form.

Traditional broadcast television viewership is down, and so are advertising revenues, as the age of the typical viewer moves up and out of the desirable young-adult demographic zone.

Broadcast radio ratings and profits also have been sharply lower in recent quarters as growing numbers of listeners turn to satellite radio and catch their entertainment and news on iPods and cell phones.

Cable television, satellite radio, DVD movies, video games and the Internet are all diverting younger viewers away from their favorite sitcoms.

Most threatening for traditional media companies long-term is an array of huge and well-financed companies in telecommunications and technology with radically different approaches to news and information.

The Wall Street Journal suggested last week that new media companies with local designs - including Yahoo, Google or eBay - might be interested in Knight Ridder. Yahoo "has moved increasingly into original content and would like to develop its local reach," said the paper. "Meanwhile, Google Inc. has expressed interest in entering the classified-ad market, where newspapers have deep relationships and continue to play a dominant role."

Yahoo recently hired a war correspondent to describe his visits to the world's military "hot spots" on its Web site and promoted it like a Vin Diesel action movie.

Sprint-Nextel is promoting itself as an entertainment platform, not just a phone network. Last week it joined with cable giant Comcast, Time Warner Cable, Cox and Advance/Newhouse to announce a joint venture to develop technologies that would enable cable subscribers to use cell phones to watch live TV shows, program digital video recorders, and check home Email.

EBay, the online auction phenomenon, bought an Internet telephony service in
Europe. Phone giant Verizon is offering cable TV, and Comcast and others are preparing cell phone service that combines Internet and TV - all growing markets for advertising and news. Perhaps the iPod will someday deliver news and cook dinner.

Newspapers continue to hold significant advantages. When the number of eyes on newspaper Internet news sites is added to the number of traditional newspaper readers, effective readership looms over other media. But, thus far, Internet advertising provides newspapers with only a fraction of the ad revenue they receive from advertisers in the actual paper.

Still, with nearly $50 billion in advertising revenue, newspapers make up the second-biggest chunk of the $260-billion
U.S. advertising market, after direct mail. But the diverging trend lines are no secret: While newspaper advertising has grown by a meager 10 percent since 1997, Internet advertising - though still a fraction of ad spending - has mushroomed tenfold to more than $10 billion. Cable TV advertising also doubled during that span, to roughly $20 billion.

A
Toronto media consultant, Kubas, pinpointed print's Waterloo as the spring of 2000, the peak of the dot-com stock boom. That's when U.S. newspaper ad revenues stopped tracking with the growth of national retail sales and gross domestic product and began to resemble the flight of a wounded duck.

Since then, newspapers have been hurt by the two defining W's of our age: Wal-Mart, which spends little on newspaper ads, grew at the expense of department stores, a major print client. And the Web helped erode newspaper classified advertising, which plummeted to $4.4 billion in 2002 from $8.7 billion in 2000 as the job market chilled, Kubas said.

Newspapers are becoming less of a habit for people for a wide range of reasons, some sociological, some self-inflicted. On any given day, more adults are still more likely to read a newspaper - roughly 110 million - than use the Internet - 75 million. But again, the trend lines are bleak: Newspaper readership has fallen by one-third during the past 40 years and faster - by roughly one-half - among young adults (age 25-34), according to various market research.

The Internet has stolen readers, goes the consensus, and yet the medium is an infant that's only begun to flex its news muscles. "Pam Anderson," "Pokemon" and "Britney Spears" top the list of most-searched terms since 1995, a reflection of a medium that's mostly been about entertainment and commerce during its first decade as a commercial network. The Internet, which added more Web sites this year, 17.5 million, than during the height of the dot-com craze, is beginning to become more interested in the news.

The marketing world, too, has only begun to adjust. Consumers generally spend as much time on the Internet - counting the time they spend on it at work - as they do watching TV each day, yet companies still spend six times as much advertising on TV as online, analyst Charlene Li pointed out in a recent report for Forrester Research Inc. of
Cambridge. That will change, especially with new services that improve advertisers' ability to monitor their return on all ad spending.

What might be most threatening to the traditional media is that their risk-adverse managers are about to go up against innovative and global players who aren't invested in the old models and who have already made gobs of money transforming the way people communicate.

In one sense, the newspaper companies are in a predicament akin to that of General Motors and Ford, United and Northwest, the very companies whose troubles have dominated their business pages in recent years: It's not that people have stopped consuming news, just as they haven't stopped buying cars or flying in planes. Far from it. It's that the so-called legacy companies grew large in a different era and can't easily escape its economic and social assumptions.

"The number of smart people who left the newspaper industry in the past 10 years is legion. They could not take banging their heads against the industry any more. The decision-making structure is not set up in a way that can react to change," said Mark Del Vecchio, a former wire-service reporter who now runs a Web site that deals in movie memorabilia.

Del Vecchio, who covered the Tiananmen Square massacre in China for United Press International and became the first editor for the Web site of The Hartford Courant, had tried in 1997 to persuade the previous owner of the Courant (and of The Sun) to buy then-little-known eBay. He had stumbled across the Internet auction site in his movie-collecting hobby. He and a colleague visited eBay and found its few employees struggling to open and record the mail sacks of checks rolling in.

As described in the 2002 book The Perfect Store, the former Times Mirror Corp. probably could have had eBay for $40 million then, but the newspaper executives declined to make an offer, mystified about how to value a business that owned no trucks, buildings or inventory. By spring 2000, when Tribune
Co. bought Times Mirror for $8 billion in the nation's largest newspaper merger, eBay's market capitalization was double that. It now generates $4.5 billion in annual sales.

"We've all heard that in every industry there are folks who say, 'It'll never happen. It's a lark. It's a bunch of geeks.' You heard every permutation," recalls Del Vecchio, from his
New Hampshire company, CineQuest.com. "The biggest obstacle is trying to force every new thing into a traditional bureaucracy. The guy at General Motors whose big money is due to making big cars, he's going to spend time each day thinking about how to put himself out of work? It doesn't work that way. The people in charge of new ventures are really invested in the old ventures."

Historians even have a term for it - "technological momentum." From cars to personal computers, the powers that be have rarely produced the breakthroughs that alter behavior and the marketplace. More often than not, they try to impede them politically.

"Large organizations tend to favor inventions that improve the existing product line," said Thomas P. Hughes, a renowned sociologist at the
University of Pennsylvania who is credited with defining the concept. "They're reluctant to adopt a new technology that completely changes the market."

From Thomas Samuel Kuhn, who popularized the concept of "paradigm shifts," to the urban planner Lewis Mumford, futurists and historians have long studied the patterns by which one device succumbs to another. But even the best in the field acknowledge that predictions about technological revolution are often wrong. For every business or industry that died because it couldn't adjust and compete with new technology or a better product, is another that somehow defied common wisdom. TV didn't kill radio. The telephone didn't slow the use of mail service. We are deep in more paper, not less, in the computer era.

While print's days might seem numbered, even the greatest of visionaries can be wildly off in predicting the impact of technology. Orville Wright projected in 1917 that aviation would make warfare obsolete because the ability to see from the sky would negate surprise attacks, Richard Rhodes recounted in his 1999 book Visions of Technology. Polaroid inventor Edwin Land foresaw a postwar technological economy that would eradicate urban slums that had festered since Dickens. And some embraced radio in the 1920s as the deliverer of international understanding, world peace and the remedy to, of all things, political demagoguery.

"The most powerful effects are usually the unintended consequences," said Rhodes, who won the Pulitzer Prize in 1988 for his writing on nuclear weapons - perhaps the cause of the greatest of all unintended consequences, he said, because their awesome might curtailed world-scale war.

He anticipates that within a decade people will have portable "roll-up" computer sheets able to receive news - and will have lost all privacy within two decades as the Internet's ability to mine data such as medical records increases.

Online newspapers will become more transparent - and compelling - by increasingly showing how they researched a story, including posting original documents and not just presenting the final product, he said. "The newspaper's basic structure, to go out there and dig out the stuff, is what people will always need."

Newspapers will have to find a way to transform their business model, and staffing, over time from print to online. Internet advertising doesn't produce nearly as much revenue as print, but the profit margins can be higher, said John Morton, the well-known newspaper analyst who runs Morton Research Inc. in
Silver Spring.

"Never underestimate an industry that's been around for 400 years," said Pablo J. Boczkowski, a
Northwestern University professor and author of Digitizing the News, this year's top book prize winner from the scholarly International Communication Association. "Predictions tend to be wrong for the most part because the weight of the present context is too strong, and many of the most interesting and appealing trends are totally unforeseen."

"People assume that new media replace, when they more often than not displace, old media," said James L. Baughman, a mass communications professor at the
University of Wisconsin at Madison. "Life magazine circulation initially went up after television. It wasn't until the late 1960s that Life began to lose readers. Newspapers were not initially affected by radio or television. A lot of things we do expect to happen don't."

But if an obituary for newspapers is premature, the signs of ill health - not just short-term measures of profit and circulation, but more structural weaknesses - can't be dismissed. It's not just that young people have drifted off; patterns of life have evolved to the detriment of newspapers just as they did for the
6 p.m. network newscasts.

Last week, NBC announced that its evening newscast, once the network's most influential and profitable news show, would be posted on its Web site, available at any hour anywhere.

The afternoon newspaper - more dominant than morning papers by circulation until about 25 years ago and by sheer number of publications until just a few years ago - mostly stopped working in a world of two-income households, long suburban commutes and the service economy's longer hours. Now, families have less time to read in the morning too.

It would be ironic (or maybe explanatory) that the Information Age has been less kind to newspapers than the Industrial Age. People say they no longer have time for the product, but the length of the day is the same as ever.

andrew.ratner@baltsun.com


 

 What Belongs on the Front Page of The New York Times

August 22, 2004

By JACK ROSENTHAL

THE Good Gray Times: it surely was that. Black and white for certain; read all over, maybe. For decades, the front page of The Times each day packed 12 articles into eight narrow columns of type, relieved only by occasional photographs and maps. Page 1 in 1900 had nearly 10,000 words of text; in the 1950's, about 4,500.

How times - and the face of The Times - have changed. Page 1 today typically contains six articles, with about 2,200 words of text, arrayed in an artful vertical and horizontal mix, with three or four color illustrations and a box promoting five or six articles inside.

Page 1 has also steadily changed in another substantialway: content. The Times has long prided itself on its coverage of geopolitics, whether foreign turmoil, Washington infighting or city politics. But in recent years, front-page subject matter has expanded widely, reflecting rising interest in topics like finance, family, technology, medicine and space. The front page likewise reflects the paper's interest in livelier writing. Radio and television have turned spoken, informal English into Americans' dominant language and The Times, famously scrupulous about keeping language proper, has become equally concerned with making it accessible.

The Times has done less well in adapting to other concerns of readers. They ask why, for instance, does a paper that made much of Whitewater, a real estate deal that occurred before Bill Clinton's presidency, now fail to give Page 1 prominence to the financial improprieties at Halliburton under Dick Cheney? Why does The Times put so many articles about Abu Ghraib on Page 1? Why a feature on young Japanese-Americans rather than real news about the failings of federal gun control?

Such questions often reflect the asker's politics, geography or age. In any case, it is reckless to second-guess the choice of one article over another for Page 1 without at least knowing at what hour a particular article developed and how it compared in importance with other news of that day.

Dan Okrent's appointment as the first public editor offers a way for readers with such concerns to make themselves heard. He has appraised Page 1 news judgments before and I'd be surprised if he does not do so again. An appraisal is also in order of the Page 1 process, including its shortcomings. Two notable ones are navigation and explanation.

The very comprehensiveness of The Times's coverage often makes readers - and some editors - long for a compass to direct them across acres of newsprint. And in this all-news-all-the-time environment, when many readers already know what happened before they pick up the paper, their need is for help in understanding it.

What Page 1 Does

The Times's front page performs several traditional functions. At a glance it gives readers a summary of the most important events of the day, in obvious order of importance, in comparison with other days. On big news days, the editors are always ready to break out big headlines (MEN WALK ON MOON; U.S. ATTACKED). On a routine day, the lead story will appear on the far right under a single-column headline. That tells the  reader this is the strongest article the editors have to offer today, and they see no reason to hype it with a bigger headline. These are judgments that hundreds of editors and news directors around the country receive in nightly reports of The Times's "frontings."

On big news days, the choices are pretty obvious. It's slow days that test the depth of The Times and other quality media. All-news channels and stations are not known for exhaustive reporting of old governmental wrongs or new social rites. The Times's front page last Monday, a slow day, included exclusive articles of both kinds, one reporting that the F.B.I. has been questioning political demonstrators, and one registering a turn in teenage fashion from punk to preppy.

Page 1, like The Times, reflects the interests of a readership that is better educated, more curious and more dispersed. Women, for example, were once catered to -- patronized, one might say today -- inside The Times with the Four F's, a daily page titled food, fashion, family and furnishings. Now, topics like diet, divorce and retail rivalries regularly win front-page attention.

Who Decides What Goes Where

Promptly at noon and again at 4:30, about 18 editors gather around a long oval table to hear what each of the major departments recommends for Page 1 the next morning. The executive editor and managing editors encourage discussion. When there's not much going on, every editor remembers the unspoken first law of journalism: big news or no news, you gotta run something.

Especially on slow days, heads of the various departments at The Times look for the opportunity to  present original reports. These may disclose a new aspect of a continuing story, like the federal investigation into who leaked the name of Valerie Plame of the C.I.A. to a Washington columnist. Or they may present new reporting like The Times's July series, "Death on the Tracks," on scores of preventable deaths at railroad crossings. Or editors may consider what they call "the mix" and put on Page 1 a story of only passing  consequence but of interest to a diversifying audience. An example that irritated older readers is the recent report that the cool look for younger men is to wear their shirttails out of their pants.

When there's a major occurrence, The Times, like other papers, will assign multiple reporters to multiple facets. Last Sunday's coverage of Hurricane Charley included five articles occupying half the front page and two full inside pages. In instances like this, a decent regard for readers with limited time or interest suggests giving them navigation help, a brief summary of those articles, for instance, starting on Page 1. The Times created such a feature on a bigger scale for A Nation Challenged, its special section after 9/11. That daily summary became an art form all its own.

What's Behind the News

Starting half a century ago, The Times began publishing news analyses to give reporters a way to supply expertise or context when the facts alone tell only part of the story. These are known internally as Q-heads, after their typographic designation. From the start, Times editors have taken pains to see that these articles do not express opinion; that's the province of the editorial and Op-Ed pages.

Some readers express impatience with anything other than traditional news. Yet readers who know the news before morning constitute a large and growing fraction of the readership. The Times calculates that one of every six readers also consults The Times on the Web, and there is an unknown but surely substantial overlap with broadcast news programs. The new all-news environment thus generates the need for  explanation. The same imagination that creates room on Page 1 for crystal-clear graphics could do so for more written background, context and insight.

To advocate more explanation may be just glib. When a reporter is writing on deadline soon after an event, there may not yet be anything more thoughtful to contribute. In any case there's no time to ask or ponder, no matter what some experts may instantly declaim on cable news. The Times in fact now encourages writers to interpolate more analysis into their primary reporting rather than ask readers to consult a separate article.

More Page 1 news analysis is, in any event, only one answer. Another is to call front-page attention to explanatory material inside the paper. There may also be new ways to present analysis and explanation, escaping from formats devised for the clanking Linotype machines that disappeared from The Times's fourth floor 25 years ago.

One way or another, simply presenting the news, no matter how accurately or attractively, leaves many readers unsatisfied. When so many of them have already been exposed to the bare bones of the news, what The Times can best offer them, starting on Page 1, is more meat to chew on.

Jack Rosenthal, president of The New York Times Company Foundation, was a senior editor of The Times for 26 years.

 

 

 

 

BAD NEWS

By RICHARD A. POSNER 

Published: July 31, 2005, Sunday 

The New York Times Book Review

 

THE conventional news media are embattled. Attacked by both left and right in book

after book, rocked by scandals, challenged by upstart bloggers, they have become a focus

of controversy and concern. Their audience is in decline, their credibility with the public

in shreds. In a recent poll conducted by the Annenberg Public Policy Center, 65 percent

of the respondents thought that most news organizations, if they discover they've made a

mistake, try to ignore it or cover it up, and 79 percent opined that a media company

would hesitate to carry negative stories about a corporation from which it received

substantial advertising revenues.

The industry's critics agree that the function of the news is to inform people about social,

political, cultural, ethical and economic issues so that they can vote and otherwise

express themselves as responsible citizens. They agree on the related point that

journalism is a profession rather than just a trade and therefore that journalists and their

employers must not allow profit considerations to dominate, but must acknowledge an

ethical duty to report the news accurately, soberly, without bias, reserving the expression

of political preferences for the editorial page and its radio and television counterparts.

The critics further agree, as they must, that 30 years ago news reporting was dominated

by newspapers and by television network news and that the audiences for these media

have declined with the rise of competing sources, notably cable television and the Web.

The audience decline is potentially fatal for newspapers. Not only has their daily

readership dropped from 52.6 percent of adults in 1990 to 37.5 percent in 2000, but the

drop is much steeper in the 20-to-49-year-old cohort, a generation that is, and as it ages

will remain, much more comfortable with electronic media in general and the Web in

particular than the current elderly are.

At this point the diagnosis splits along political lines. Liberals, including most journalists

(because most journalists are liberals), believe that the decline of the formerly dominant

''mainstream'' media has caused a deterioration in quality. They attribute this decline to

the rise of irresponsible journalism on the right, typified by the Fox News Channel (the

most-watched cable television news channel), Rush Limbaugh's radio talk show and

right-wing blogs by Matt Drudge and others. But they do not spare the mainstream

media, which, they contend, provide in the name of balance an echo chamber for the

right. To these critics, the deterioration of journalism is exemplified by the attack of the

''Swift boat'' Vietnam veterans on Senator John Kerry during the 2004 election campaign.

The critics describe the attack as consisting of lies propagated by the new right-wing

media and reported as news by mainstream media made supine by anxiety over their

declining fortunes.

Critics on the right applaud the rise of the conservative media as a long-overdue

corrective to the liberal bias of the mainstream media, which, according to Jim A.

Kuypers, the author of ''Press Bias and Politics,'' are ''a partisan collective which both

consciously and unconsciously attempts to persuade the public to accept its interpretation

of the world as true.'' Fourteen percent of Americans describe themselves as liberals, and

26 percent as conservatives. The corresponding figures for journalists are 56 percent and

18 percent. This means that of all journalists who consider themselves either liberal or

conservative, 76 percent consider themselves liberal, compared with only 35 percent of

the public that has a stated political position.

So politically one-sided are the mainstream media, the right complains (while sliding

over the fact that the owners and executives, as distinct from the working journalists, tend

to be far less liberal), that not only do they slant the news in a liberal direction; they will

stop at nothing to defeat conservative politicians and causes. The right points to the ''60

Minutes II'' broadcast in which Dan Rather paraded what were probably forged

documents concerning George W. Bush's National Guard service, and to Newsweek's

erroneous report, based on a single anonymous source, that an American interrogator had

flushed a copy of the Koran down the toilet (a physical impossibility, one would have

thought).

Strip these critiques of their indignation, treat them as descriptions rather than as

denunciations, and one sees that they are consistent with one another and basically

correct. The mainstream media are predominantly liberal -- in fact, more liberal than they

used to be. But not because the politics of journalists have changed. Rather, because the

rise of new media, itself mainly an economic rather than a political phenomenon, has

caused polarization, pushing the already liberal media farther left.

The news media have also become more sensational, more prone to scandal and possibly

less accurate. But note the tension between sensationalism and polarization: the trial of

Michael Jackson got tremendous coverage, displacing a lot of political coverage, but it

had no political valence.

The interesting questions are, first, the why of these trends, and, second, so what?

The why is the vertiginous decline in the cost of electronic communication and the

relaxation of regulatory barriers to entry, leading to the proliferation of consumer choices.

Thirty years ago the average number of television channels that Americans could receive

was seven; today, with the rise of cable and satellite television, it is 71. Thirty years ago

there was no Internet, therefore no Web, hence no online newspapers and magazines, no

blogs. The public's consumption of news and opinion used to be like sucking on a straw;

now it's like being sprayed by a fire hose.

To see what difference the elimination of a communications bottleneck can make,

consider a town that before the advent of television or even radio had just two

newspapers because economies of scale made it impossible for a newspaper with a small

circulation to break even. Each of the two, to increase its advertising revenues, would try

to maximize circulation by pitching its news to the median reader, for that reader would

not be attracted to a newspaper that flaunted extreme political views. There would be the

same tendency to political convergence that is characteristic of two-party political

systems, and for the same reason -- attracting the least committed is the key to obtaining

a majority.

One of the two newspapers would probably be liberal and have a loyal readership of

liberal readers, and the other conservative and have a loyal conservative readership. That

would leave a middle range. To snag readers in that range, the liberal newspaper could

not afford to be too liberal or the conservative one too conservative. The former would

strive to be just liberal enough to hold its liberal readers, and the latter just conservative

enough to hold its conservative readers. If either moved too close to its political extreme,

it would lose readers in the middle without gaining readers from the extreme, since it had

them already.

But suppose cost conditions change, enabling a newspaper to break even with many

fewer readers than before. Now the liberal newspaper has to worry that any temporizing

of its message in an effort to attract moderates may cause it to lose its most liberal readers

to a new, more liberal newspaper; for with small-scale entry into the market now

economical, the incumbents no longer have a secure base. So the liberal newspaper will

tend to become even more liberal and, by the same process, the conservative newspaper

more conservative. (If economies of scale increase, and as a result the number of

newspapers grows, the opposite ideological change will be observed, as happened in the

19th century. The introduction of the ''penny press'' in the 1830's enabled newspapers to

obtain large circulations and thus finance themselves by selling advertising; no longer did

they have to depend on political patronage.)

The current tendency to political polarization in news reporting is thus a consequence of

changes not in underlying political opinions but in costs, specifically the falling costs of

new entrants. The rise of the conservative Fox News Channel caused CNN to shift to the

left. CNN was going to lose many of its conservative viewers to Fox anyway, so it made

sense to increase its appeal to its remaining viewers by catering more assiduously to their

political preferences.

The tendency to greater sensationalism in reporting is a parallel phenomenon. The more

news sources there are, the more intense the struggle for an audience. One tactic is to

occupy an overlooked niche -- peeling away from the broad-based media a segment of

the consuming public whose interests were not catered to previously. That is the tactic

that produces polarization. Another is to ''shout louder'' than the competitors, where

shouting takes the form of a sensational, attention-grabbing discovery, accusation, claim

or photograph. According to James T. Hamilton in his valuable book ''All the News

That's Fit to Sell,'' this even explains why the salaries paid news anchors have soared: the

more competition there is for an audience, the more valuable is a celebrity newscaster.

The argument that competition increases polarization assumes that liberals want to read

liberal newspapers and conservatives conservative ones. Natural as that assumption is, it

conflicts with one of the points on which left and right agree -- that people consume news

and opinion in order to become well informed about public issues. Were this true, liberals

would read conservative newspapers, and conservatives liberal newspapers, just as

scientists test their hypotheses by confronting them with data that may refute them. But

that is not how ordinary people (or, for that matter, scientists) approach political and

social issues. The issues are too numerous, uncertain and complex, and the benefit to an

individual of becoming well informed about them too slight, to invite sustained,

disinterested attention. Moreover, people don't like being in a state of doubt, so they look

for information that will support rather than undermine their existing beliefs. They're also

uncomfortable seeing their beliefs challenged on issues that are bound up with their

economic welfare, physical safety or religious and moral views.

So why do people consume news and opinion? In part it is to learn of facts that bear

directly and immediately on their lives -- hence the greater attention paid to local than to

national and international news. They also want to be entertained, and they find scandals,

violence, crime, the foibles of celebrities and the antics of the powerful all mightily

entertaining. And they want to be confirmed in their beliefs by seeing them echoed and

elaborated by more articulate, authoritative and prestigious voices. So they accept, and

many relish, a partisan press. Forty-three percent of the respondents in the poll by the

Annenberg Public Policy Center thought it ''a good thing if some news organizations have

a decidedly political point of view in their coverage of the news.''

Being profit-driven, the media respond to the actual demands of their audience rather

than to the idealized ''thirst for knowledge'' demand posited by public intellectuals and

deans of journalism schools. They serve up what the consumer wants, and the more

intense the competitive pressure, the better they do it. We see this in the media's coverage

of political campaigns. Relatively little attention is paid to issues. Fundamental questions,

like the actual difference in policies that might result if one candidate rather than the

other won, get little play. The focus instead is on who's ahead, viewed as a function of

campaign tactics, which are meticulously reported. Candidates' statements are evaluated

not for their truth but for their adroitness; it is assumed, without a hint of embarrassment,

that a political candidate who levels with voters disqualifies himself from being taken

seriously, like a racehorse that tries to hug the outside of the track. News coverage of a

political campaign is oriented to a public that enjoys competitive sports, not to one that is

civic-minded.

We saw this in the coverage of the selection of Justice Sandra Day O'Connor's successor.

It was played as an election campaign; one article even described the jockeying for the

nomination by President Bush as the ''primary election'' and the fight to get the nominee

confirmed by the Senate the ''general election'' campaign. With only a few exceptions, no

attention was paid to the ability of the people being considered for the job or the actual

consequences that the appointment was likely to have for the nation.

Does this mean that the news media were better before competition polarized them? Not

at all. A market gives people what they want, whether they want the same thing or

different things. Challenging areas of social consensus, however dumb or even vicious

the consensus, is largely off limits for the media, because it wins no friends among the

general public. The mainstream media do not kick sacred cows like religion and

patriotism.

Not that the media lie about the news they report; in fact, they have strong incentives not

to lie. Instead, there is selection, slanting, decisions as to how much or how little

prominence to give a particular news item. Giving a liberal spin to equivocal economic

data when conservatives are in power is, as the Harvard economists Sendhil Mullainathan

and Andrei Shleifer point out, a matter of describing the glass as half empty when

conservatives would describe it as half full.

Journalists are reluctant to confess to pandering to their customers' biases; it challenges

their self-image as servants of the general interest, unsullied by commerce. They want to

think they inform the public, rather than just satisfying a consumer demand no more

elevated or consequential than the demand for cosmetic surgery in Brazil or bullfights in

Spain. They believe in ''deliberative democracy'' -- democracy as the system in which the

people determine policy through deliberation on the issues. In his preface to ''The Future

of Media'' (a collection of articles edited by Robert W. McChesney, Russell Newman and

Ben Scott), Bill Moyers writes that ''democracy can't exist without an informed public.'' If

this is true, the United States is not a democracy (which may be Moyers's dyspeptic

view). Only members of the intelligentsia, a tiny slice of the population, deliberate on

public issues.

The public's interest in factual accuracy is less an interest in truth than a delight in the

unmasking of the opposition's errors. Conservatives were unembarrassed by the errors of

the Swift Boat veterans, while taking gleeful satisfaction in the exposure of the forgeries

on which Dan Rather had apparently relied, and in his resulting fall from grace. They

reveled in Newsweek's retracting its story about flushing the Koran down a toilet yet

would prefer that American abuse of prisoners be concealed. Still, because there is a

market demand for correcting the errors and ferreting out the misdeeds of one's enemies,

the media exercise an important oversight function, creating accountability and deterring

wrongdoing. That, rather than educating the public about the deep issues, is their great

social mission. It shows how a market produces a social good as an unintended byproduct

of self-interested behavior.

The limited consumer interest in the truth is the key to understanding why both left and

right can plausibly denounce the same media for being biased in favor of the other.

Journalists are writing to meet a consumer demand that is not a demand for

uncomfortable truths. So a newspaper that appeals to liberal readers will avoid exposés of

bad behavior by blacks or homosexuals, as William McGowan charges in ''Coloring the

News''; similarly, Daniel Okrent, the first ombudsman of The New York Times, said that

the news pages of The Times ''present the social and cultural aspects of same-sex

marriage in a tone that approaches cheerleading.'' Not only would such exposés offend

liberal readers who are not black or homosexual; many blacks and homosexuals are

customers of liberal newspapers, and no business wants to offend a customer.

But the same liberal newspaper or television news channel will pull some of its punches

when it comes to reporting on the activities of government, even in Republican

administrations, thus giving credence to the left critique, as in Michael Massing's ''Now

They Tell Us,'' about the reporting of the war in Iraq. A newspaper depends on access to

officials for much of its information about what government is doing and planning, and is

reluctant to bite too hard the hand that feeds it. Nevertheless, it is hyperbole for Eric

Alterman to claim in ''What Liberal Media?'' that ''liberals are fighting a near-hopeless

battle in which they are enormously outmatched by most measures'' by the conservative

media, or for Bill Moyers to say that ''the marketplace of political ideas'' is dominated by

a ''quasi-official partisan press ideologically linked to an authoritarian administration.'' In

a sample of 23 leading newspapers and newsmagazines, the liberal ones had twice the

circulation of the conservative. The bias in some of the reporting in the liberal media,

acknowledged by Okrent, is well documented by McGowan, as well as by Bernard

Goldberg in ''Bias'' and L. Brent Bozell III in ''Weapons of Mass Distortion.''

Journalists minimize offense, preserve an aura of objectivity and cater to the popular taste

for conflict and contests by -- in the name of ''balance'' -- reporting both sides of an issue,

even when there aren't two sides. So ''intelligent design,'' formerly called by the

oxymoron ''creation science,'' though it is religious dogma thinly disguised, gets almost

equal billing with the theory of evolution. If journalists admitted that the economic

imperatives of their industry overrode their political beliefs, they would weaken the

right's critique of liberal media bias.

The latest, and perhaps gravest, challenge to the journalistic establishment is the blog.

Journalists accuse bloggers of having lowered standards. But their real concern is less

high-minded -- it is the threat that bloggers, who are mostly amateurs, pose to

professional journalists and their principal employers, the conventional news media. A

serious newspaper, like The Times, is a large, hierarchical commercial enterprise that

interposes layers of review, revision and correction between the reporter and the

published report and that to finance its large staff depends on advertising revenues and

hence on the good will of advertisers and (because advertising revenues depend to a great

extent on circulation) readers. These dependences constrain a newspaper in a variety of

ways. But in addition, with its reputation heavily invested in accuracy, so that every

serious error is a potential scandal, a newspaper not only has to delay publication of many

stories to permit adequate checking but also has to institute rules for avoiding error -- like

requiring more than a single source for a story or limiting its reporters' reliance on

anonymous sources -- that cost it many scoops.

Blogs don't have these worries. Their only cost is the time of the blogger, and that cost

may actually be negative if the blogger can use the publicity that he obtains from

blogging to generate lecture fees and book royalties. Having no staff, the blogger is not

expected to be accurate. Having no advertisers (though this is changing), he has no reason

to pull his punches. And not needing a large circulation to cover costs, he can target a

segment of the reading public much narrower than a newspaper or a television news

channel could aim for. He may even be able to pry that segment away from the

conventional media. Blogs pick off the mainstream media's customers one by one, as it

were.

And bloggers thus can specialize in particular topics to an extent that few journalists

employed by media companies can, since the more that journalists specialized, the more

of them the company would have to hire in order to be able to cover all bases. A

newspaper will not hire a journalist for his knowledge of old typewriters, but plenty of

people in the blogosphere have that esoteric knowledge, and it was they who brought

down Dan Rather. Similarly, not being commercially constrained, a blogger can stick

with and dig into a story longer and deeper than the conventional media dare to, lest their

readers become bored. It was the bloggers' dogged persistence in pursuing a story that the

conventional media had tired of that forced Trent Lott to resign as Senate majority leader.

What really sticks in the craw of conventional journalists is that although individual blogs

have no warrant of accuracy, the blogosphere as a whole has a better error-correction

machinery than the conventional media do. The rapidity with which vast masses of

information are pooled and sifted leaves the conventional media in the dust. Not only are

there millions of blogs, and thousands of bloggers who specialize, but, what is more,

readers post comments that augment the blogs, and the information in those comments, as

in the blogs themselves, zips around blogland at the speed of electronic transmission.

This means that corrections in blogs are also disseminated virtually instantaneously,

whereas when a member of the mainstream media catches a mistake, it may take weeks

to communicate a retraction to the public. This is true not only of newspaper retractions --

usually printed inconspicuously and in any event rarely read, because readers have

forgotten the article being corrected -- but also of network television news. It took CBS

so long to acknowledge Dan Rather's mistake because there are so many people involved

in the production and supervision of a program like ''60 Minutes II'' who have to be

consulted.

The charge by mainstream journalists that blogging lacks checks and balances is obtuse.

The blogosphere has more checks and balances than the conventional media; only they

are different. The model is Friedrich Hayek's classic analysis of how the economic

market pools enormous quantities of information efficiently despite its decentralized

character, its lack of a master coordinator or regulator, and the very limited knowledge

possessed by each of its participants.

In effect, the blogosphere is a collective enterprise -- not 12 million separate enterprises,

but one enterprise with 12 million reporters, feature writers and editorialists, yet with

almost no costs. It's as if The Associated Press or Reuters had millions of reporters, many

of them experts, all working with no salary for free newspapers that carried no

advertising.

How can the conventional news media hope to compete? Especially when the

competition is not entirely fair. The bloggers are parasitical on the conventional media.

They copy the news and opinion generated by the conventional media, often at

considerable expense, without picking up any of the tab. The degree of parasitism is

striking in the case of those blogs that provide their readers with links to newspaper

articles. The links enable the audience to read the articles without buying the newspaper.

The legitimate gripe of the conventional media is not that bloggers undermine the overall

accuracy of news reporting, but that they are free riders who may in the long run

undermine the ability of the conventional media to finance the very reporting on which

bloggers depend.

Some critics worry that ''unfiltered'' media like blogs exacerbate social tensions by

handing a powerful electronic platform to extremists at no charge. Bad people find one

another in cyberspace and so gain confidence in their crazy ideas. The conventional

media filter out extreme views to avoid offending readers, viewers and advertisers; most

bloggers have no such inhibition.

The argument for filtering is an argument for censorship. (That it is made by liberals is

evidence that everyone secretly favors censorship of the opinions he fears.) But probably

there is little harm and some good in unfiltered media. They enable unorthodox views to

get a hearing. They get 12 million people to write rather than just stare passively at a

screen. In an age of specialization and professionalism, they give amateurs a platform.

They allow people to blow off steam who might otherwise adopt more dangerous forms

of self-expression. They even enable the authorities to keep tabs on potential

troublemakers; intelligence and law enforcement agencies devote substantial resources to

monitoring blogs and Internet chat rooms.

And most people are sensible enough to distrust communications in an unfiltered

medium. They know that anyone can create a blog at essentially zero cost, that most

bloggers are uncredentialed amateurs, that bloggers don't employ fact checkers and don't

have editors and that a blogger can hide behind a pseudonym. They know, in short, that

until a blogger's assertions are validated (as when the mainstream media acknowledge an

error discovered by a blogger), there is no reason to repose confidence in what he says.

The mainstream media, by contrast, assure their public that they make strenuous efforts

to prevent errors from creeping into their articles and broadcasts. They ask the public to

trust them, and that is why their serious errors are scandals.

A survey by the National Opinion Research Center finds that the public's confidence in

the press declined from about 85 percent in 1973 to 59 percent in 2002, with most of the

decline occurring since 1991. Over both the longer and the shorter period, there was little

change in public confidence in other major institutions. So it seems there are special

factors eroding trust in the news industry. One is that the blogs have exposed errors by

the mainstream media that might otherwise have gone undiscovered or received less

publicity. Another is that competition by the blogs, as well as by the other new media,

has pushed the established media to get their stories out faster, which has placed pressure

on them to cut corners. So while the blogosphere is a marvelous system for prompt error

correction, it is not clear whether its net effect is to reduce the amount of error in the

media as a whole.

But probably the biggest reason for declining trust in the media is polarization. As media

companies are pushed closer to one end of the political spectrum or the other, the trust

placed in them erodes. Their motives are assumed to be political. This may explain recent

Pew Research Center poll data that show Republicans increasingly regarding the media

as too critical of the government and Democrats increasingly regarding them as not

critical enough.

Thus the increase in competition in the news market that has been brought about by lower

costs of communication (in the broadest sense) has resulted in more variety, more

polarization, more sensationalism, more healthy skepticism and, in sum, a better

matching of supply to demand. But increased competition has not produced a public more

oriented toward public issues, more motivated and competent to engage in genuine self-

government, because these are not the goods that most people are seeking from the news

media. They are seeking entertainment, confirmation, reinforcement, emotional

satisfaction; and what consumers want, a competitive market supplies, no more, no less.

Journalists express dismay that bottom-line pressures are reducing the quality of news

coverage. What this actually means is that when competition is intense, providers of a

service are forced to give the consumer what he or she wants, not what they, as proud

professionals, think the consumer should want, or more bluntly, what they want.

Yet what of the sliver of the public that does have a serious interest in policy issues? Are

these people less well served than in the old days? Another recent survey by the Pew

Research Center finds that serious magazines have held their own and that serious

broadcast outlets, including that bane of the right, National Public Radio, are attracting

ever larger audiences. And for that sliver of a sliver that invites challenges to its biases by

reading The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal, that watches CNN and Fox,

that reads Brent Bozell and Eric Alterman and everything in between, the increased

polarization of the media provides a richer fare than ever before.

So when all the pluses and minuses of the impact of technological and economic change

on the news media are toted up and compared, maybe there isn't much to fret about. 

 

Books Discussed in This Essay 

 

Press Bias and Politics: How the Media Frame Controversial Issues, by Jim A. Kuypers.

Praeger. Paper, $28.95. 

 

All the News That's Fit to Sell: How the Market Transforms Information Into News, by

James T. Hamilton. Princeton University. $37.95. 

 

The Future of Media: Resistance and Reform in the 21st Century, edited by Robert W.

McChesney, Russell Newman and Ben Scott. Seven Stories. Paper, $19.95. 

 

Coloring the News: How Political Correctness Has Corrupted American Journalism, by

William McGowan. Encounter. Paper, $16.95. 

 

Now They Tell Us: The American Press and Iraq, by Michael Massing. New York

Review. Paper, $9.95. 

 

What Liberal Media? The Truth About Bias and the News, by Eric Alterman. Basic

Books. Paper, $15. 

 

Bias: A CBS Insider Exposes How the Media Distort the News, by Bernard Goldberg.

Perennial/ HarperCollins. Paper, $13.95. 

 

Weapons of Mass Distortion: The Coming Meltdown of the Liberal Media, by L. Brent

Bozell III. Three Rivers. Paper, $13.95.

Richard A. Posner is a judge on the United States Court of Appeals for the Seventh

Circuit, a senior lecturer at the University of Chicago Law School and, along with the

economist Gary Becker, the author of The Becker-Posner Blog.

Published: 07 - 31 - 2005